Evidence Over Opinion
Early in any venture, you are surrounded by opinions. Friends, advisers, investors and your own inner voice all have a view on what will work. Opinions are cheap and plentiful. Evidence is scarcer and far more valuable. One of the most important skills an entrepreneur can build is the habit of turning opinions into evidence as quickly and cheaply as possible.
Every plan is a set of guesses
A business plan feels solid because it is written down, but it is really a stack of assumptions. Customers want this. They will pay this much. They will find us this way. Each line is a guess until something in the real world confirms or contradicts it.
The useful question is not whether the plan is good. It is which assumption, if wrong, would hurt the most, and how quickly I can test it.
Test the riskiest assumption first
Founders often test the easy things first because they are comfortable. I try to do the opposite. If the biggest risk is that nobody will pay, the first test should involve asking for money, not perfecting a logo. A small test that could kill the idea is worth more than a large effort that only confirms what you already believe.
Watch what people do, not what they say
People are polite. They will tell you an idea sounds great and then never use it. Behaviour is more honest than praise. A sign-up, a pre-order, a repeat purchase or a referral tells you more than any number of compliments. Design your tests so that people have to act, not just comment.
Keep tests cheap and fast
A test does not need to be elaborate. A simple landing page, a handful of direct conversations or a manual version of the service run by hand can answer important questions in days instead of months. The cheaper the test, the more of them you can run, and the faster you learn.
Be willing to be wrong
Evidence is only useful if you are prepared to act on it. That means being willing to drop a favourite idea when the results say no. It is uncomfortable, but it is much cheaper to change direction after a week of testing than after a year of building.
Opinions will always be there. Treat them as hypotheses, not answers, and let the evidence decide.
Jonathan Endicott (Jonathan Weston Endicott) is an entrepreneur and creator who writes about building, momentum and discipline. More at jonathanwestonendicott.com.